2027: Is Kwara governorship seat for former, present or fresh ruling party?

By Dele Moses

Incumbent governor of Kwara State, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, will vacate the governorship seat by May 29, 2027, this being the time when he would be completing a 2-term of office, the maximum tenure of office for a president or a governor as recognised by the constitution of the country. Abdulrazaq would be leaving but his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is in the struggle to retain the seat so that the successor of the governor could be another person from the party.

The party is contesting the seat with some 12 other parties all of which with their candidates have been trolling for votes from the electorate in the state to clinch victory at the governorship election scheduled for February 2027.

The other parties include Peoples Democratic Party (APC), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP),  Social Democratic Party (SDP), Action Democratic Party (ADP), Accord Party, Action Peoples Party (APP), Action Alliance (AA), Action Peoples Movement (APM) National Democratic Party (NDP) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

From the prevailing opinion two of the parties are regarded as being more in the contest than the other  The two are the  APC and PDP. Parties like the ADC and NDC are however being considered by many observers to also be top contenders  There are in the APC, PDP and ADC notable politicians in the state and the parties have their support base well spread across the three senatorial  districts of the state.

The governorship candidate of the. APC is Salihu Yakubu Danladi, that of  PDP is Bolakale Kawu Agaka and ADC is Zakari Muhammed while that of the NDC is Olayide Olawuyi. The parties are already deploying strategies with which they could outwit one another and emerge victorious at the governorship race. But, for a party to excel in such a race, it normally takes efforts that bear on organisation, strength and unity of the party, popularity of the party among the electorate, political clout of the party’s leaders, loyalty of supporters, choice of the candidate for the election and some other relevant factors. An examination of  the top contender parties may give an indication of how prepare they are for the election.

The APC 

The APC is the incumbent ruling party in the state which has been in power since 2019. The party is well rooted in the state and it is the dominant party as it is, at present, in control of virtually all elective seats in the state it has the governorship and 22 of the 24 seats in the state House of Assembly while it has succeeded in making the House to declared the remaining two seats vacant after the occupants defected to another party. It controls all the National Assembly seats for the state and all the chairmen of the 16 local government council and the councillors.

The party has been winning governorship election in the state since 2015 but while it won it in 2015 with a group of politicians that are now in the PDP and ADC, it won it in 2019  with a different set of politicians who also worked to repeat the victory in 2023. The party won the election in 2019 through a popular movement tagged “O to ge” (enough is enough) which was meant to put an end to the political reign in the state of a powerful political element which just before the election moved out of the party  to the PDP from where it had joined the party just shortly before the 2015 election.

The momentum the movement gathered in 2019 had not yet dissipated in 2023 partly because the APC still had virtually all the leaders who inspired the movement in its fold and this helped the party to repeat in 2023 the feat of 2019.

Abdulrazaq who by virtue of being the governor elected on the platform of the party has been the leader of the party in the state since 2019. He has run an administration that many residents in the state considered has been impressive in physical projects executions as the administration has constructed  and rehabilitated many roads across the state, constructed  2,000 classrooms,  renovated over 200 primary healthcare centres, established a state university of education, constructed and renovated office buildings for government agencies and  carried out comprehensive renovation of the state own hotel, Kwara Hotels.

The administration also recruited about 9, 000 teachers and came up with schemes such as “KwaraLearn” to train teachers and improve facilities in schools and “Kwara SAPZ and “L-PRES to boost agricultural activities in the state.

With these achievements Abdulrazaq endeared his administration and his APC party to the heart of many people in the state but many other people are not impressed as they claimed that there was no transparency in his administration or that the administration overconcentrated its projects to certain area at the expense of other areas in the state. Some also accused the administration of engaging in misplaced priority.

Danladi who is the governorship candidate of the party is the incumbent Speaker of the state House of Assembly. He has been the Speaker since 2019 which is a criteria people may consider to regard him as a candidate with an experience to govern the state.

The Speaker who is a 41-year–old politician hails from the Kwara North Senatorial District. The APC in choosing its candidate from the district has received commendation from people of the zone who consider it as being their turn to produce the state governor. The district last produced governor in the aborted third republic with the governor produced at the time serving for less than two years between January 1992 and November 1993.

The two other districts namely central and south are the ones that have produced governors in the present political dispensation since 1999. While by 2027 the central district would have produced the governor for 20 years (two governors in the saddle for eight years each and one for four years ) the south produced it for 8 year between 2011 and 2019.

Many kwara north people and some others in the other two districts have thanked Governor Abdulrazaq and the APC for making the party’s candidate come from the north saying the party has done justice.

While this may be an indication that the APC will do well in the district at the governorship election it could not yet be ascertain the extent the party would go in wining the vote of the area. This is because some politicians within the APC who are from the area  though wish the zone is considered for the governorship seat did not appear to like the manner in which the party’s candidate emerged. They are alleging that the candidate was imposed on the party by the governor and are entertaining fear that if he emerged the next governor he would remain in the thrall of Abdulrazaq.

The APC as the incumbent ruling party could be said to have some advantages over other party as the power of incumbency may, to some extent, work for it. However it is not always the case that power of incumbency determine outcome of election as it happened to the PDP in the state in 2019 when, as the incumbent ruling party, lost to the APC in the election.

The APC is beset with internal crisis which appears to have sunk the momentum of the  o to ge movement into atrophy. The crisis emanated from the primary election of the party en route the 2027 general election where leaders who had been champions of the movement were either unable to win the party’s ticket for the posts they intended to contest or to secure tickets for aspirants they were supporting for some other posts. These leaders alleged that the governor appropriated to his side all the tickets and denied them the opportunities to emerge the party’s candidate or have their supporters as candidates.

This crisis which has led some of the leaders to leave the APC for some other parties remains largely unsettled and it may serve as an albatross to the party at the poll.

The PDP

The PDP was the ruling party in the state between 2003 and 2014 nonstop. However the powwrful element in the party moved to the APC in late 2014 and the party stopped to be ruling party as the APC where the element defected to became the ruling party. This happened on the way to the 2015 general election and the element won for the APC the 2015 election making the party to continue to rule untill late 2022 when the element left to return to the PDP. The PDP again became the ruling party until 2015 when with the element it lost the 2015 election.

The PDP, since this time, has been out of power in the state. It lost absolutely in the 2015 election without winning any elective seat as the governor seats and other seats were brought under the control of the APC which comprised motley political leaders opposed to the powerful element in the PDP some of who left the PDP to join the APC when the element returned to the PDP 

The PDP restrategised and came out with the hope of winning back its control of the state political power in 2023 election but the party still lost in the manner it lost in 2019 as the o to ge movement which aided victory of the APC in 2019 had not been off the boil.

The PDP lost the election for the second consecutive time and this led to some of its stalwarts deserting it for the APC which has now affirmed its being in the power in the state. However, despite this consecutive loss the PDP rwmains pertinacious and has swung into action for the next round of contest. It refused to conk out probably becuse its leader, Bukola Saraki, refused to chuck in.

Saraki as the leader of the PDP in the state gives the party inspiration, directions and encouragement. The politician is of a great political clout and he remains formidable in the politics of the state. His background is of a family that has got involved in the politics of the state for decades and still sustains relevance.

He is a 2-term former governor of the state and also a former senate president. While he was a governor he ran an administration that promoted development of the state. His administration made impact in virtually all sectors of socio-economic development. It constructed roads in numerous places including where there had never been motorable road, it enlivened public primary school through its “every child counts” programme, it renovated secondary schools and established a state university,  KWASU. The administration rehabilitated primary healthcare centres and established an ultral modern diagnosis centre. It renovated Ilorin Airport with construction of a hub and floated an aviation college. It attracted Zimbabwean white farmers to the state to start a large-scale commercial farming in Shonga and encouraged youths into learning commercial agricultural skills at a farm training institute in Malete. It renovated the state secretariat and the Kwara Hotels. It built state banquet hall, metropolitan square and upgraded the stadium complex in Ilorin. It built an electricity transmission substation. It attracted ShopRite to the state and encouraged floating of some industries including the Dangote Flour Mills 

However, the administration attracted some criticism from those who alleged that the Shonga farm was a scam because it was not meant for development of the state but for enrichment of Saraki and the white farmers and those who alleged that the administration was selling off state land and retaining the proceeds for private individuals.

Nonetheless, the administration is still being seen by many residents as one that greatly transformed socio-economic development of the state and Saraki remains a leader they reckon with.

The PDP’s governorship candidate, Agaka, is not a politician of long standing but he has a rich experience in the public service from where he retired before joining politics. He is from central senatorial district as the same as Saraki and the incumbent governor, Abdulrazaq.

The PDP may not be faulted for not picking its governorship candidate from the north district which is clamouring to be considered for the governorship seat this time round. This is because the party ceded its ticket to the district in the last election when Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi from Edu Local Government Area emerged its candidate. Abdullahi despite being one of the Frontline politician in the state was overwhelmingly defeated and did not have his defeat attenuated by victory in any area of his own north district. The district totally failed to vote for him as it gave its vote to the APC candidate, the incumbent governor Abdulrazaq.

In picking Agaka for the 2027 contest, the PDP has gone to the district that controls strongest voting strength in the state and it seems to be the only party among top contenders in the election that chose its candidate from the district. This may aid the party to excel in the district.

The party is fortunate enough not to have been struck by a debilitating  internal crisis over its primary election which could cripple its chances of victory at the general election. It has instead enjoyed some advantage in such crisis in some rival parties especially the APC from where some aggrieved influential politicians have defected to its fold. 

The PDP appears to have wholeheartedly welcomed such aggrieved defecting politician by conceding tickets for some posts to them and their supporter and by embarking on reorganisation of its leadership structure in all the local government areas in the state to accommodate the new members in the leadership. 

The party, in this its third attempt to reclaim the governorship seat of the state is being more strategic, cautious, calculative and tactical.

Other parties

The ADC and NDC are both yet not prominent the APC and PDP in the state but they are being considered as parties that may eventually pull weight at the poll

Some of those who left the PDP or APC are now the leader of the ADC in the state. They include former governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, who used to be an associate of Saraki and who succeeded him as the governor in 2011and governed for two terms,’ Bolaji Abdullahi, who also used to be an associate of Saraki and who while with him was appointed a minister in the government of Goodluck Jonathan, Zakari Muhammed, also another former Saraki’s lieutenants who while with him was elected as members of the House of Representatives twice, and Babatunde Mohammed who also while with Saraki was elected as the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly.

There is also a veteran pollitician in the state, Iyiola Oyedepo, who had served as a commissioner and who was part of the leading figure in the o to ge movement under APC. He is the senatorial candidate of the ADC in the south senatorial district

The ADC had never enjoyed the prominence it is now enjoying on the state and it has never won any elective seat in the state. It became prominent after it became famous in the country when top politicians in the nation moved into it at the national level.  

Its governorship candidate is Zakari Muhammed who hails from the north Senatorial district and the same local government area with that of the APC. Ahmed Abdulfatah, Iyiola Oyedpo and Babatunde Mohammed are from south senatorial district while Bolaji Abdullahi is from the Ilorin Emirate that is substantially of the central district The party with its stalwarts appears to have recognition in all parts of the state.

It does not however have a strong leader like Abdulrazaq in the APC and Saraki in the PDP who could pull a very strong weight for it at the poll. However  continuous popularity of the party at the national level may make an impact for it in the state at the governorship poll.

The NDC in the state is not known with political heavy weights and its governorship candidate, Olayide Olawuyi, is not prominently known. Awareness about existence of the party in the state was very limited until prominent national political figure in the country moved into the party at the national level.

The emergence of Peter Obi as the presidential candidate of the party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his runningmate gave the party prominence at the national level and this has made the party to be better known in the state. 

Though the presidential candidature of Obi in the Labour Party in 2023 and that of Kwankwaso in NNPP in the same election did not really gave their respective party prominence in the state governorship election it is being viewed by some observers that the combination of the duo with what is known as Ok movement in the NDC for the next year election  may elevate the party in the state to be a force to be reckoned with in the governorship  election.

The parties will between now and first week of February 2027 be preoccupied with electioneering activities to sell their governorship candidates to the electorate but aside from the collective strength of each of the party and clout of their leaders, popularity of the candidates themselves and that of their running mates are also expected to influence the electorate in their decisions.