By Dele Moses
Electorate in Osun State will on Saturday 15th of this month go to polling stations to vote their choice candidate as the next governor of the state. The governorship election is the second of the off-cycle elections in the South West zone this year. The first which is that of the Ekiti State was recently conducted where the incumbent governor, Biodun Oyebanji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was reelected.
This Osun election like that of the Ekiti has already attracted a lot of attention from across the country as it is the only election taking place in the country on the day. It is an election to decide if the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke is to be retained or restrained from the office as he is also contesting for second term of office as did Oyebanji in Ekiti.
Adeleke of the Accord Party is contesting the election with about 13 other candidates of other parties but the prevailing opinion in the state is that the contest is between three candidates who are Adeleke, Munirudeen Oyebamiji of the APC and Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Party (ADC).
These three top contenders hail from the same Osun West Senatorial District but have their tentacles spread across the state. Osun West became centre of focus for the three leading parties to pick their candidate perhaps because of the belief that it is the turn of the district to produce the governor. The district is the first to produce an elected governor of the state when Isiaka Adeleke, an elder brother of the incumbent governor was elected during the aborted third republic when he served in office between January 1992 and November 1993 before the military took over government.
Osun Central Senatorial District produced the next elected governor when Chief Bisi Akande was elected in 1999 and served till 2003 after which Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, also from the same district, replaced him and serve for about seven year between 2003 and 2010. Oyinlola was running his second term of office before election appeal panel nullified his election following which another person from another district became the governor after the central had occupied the seat for 11 years.
The person who took over from Oyinlola, Rauf Aregbesola, is from the Osun East Senatorial District and he served for eight years. After him there was ,in some quarters, the view that it should be the turn of West district and the election conducted in 2018 was a keen contest between Adeleke who is from the West and Gboyega Oyetola who is from the central and who is the candidate Aregbesola’s party, the APC, presented for the election. A rerun conducted in some few polling units when the statewide election was declared inconclusive gave Oyetola victory over Adeleke who had been leading by a narrow margin in the election. This made the West to remain with less than 2 years tenure in the office of the governor while the central enjoyed another four years to have 15 years tenure.
In 2022, the contest again was between Oyetola and Adeleke but this time round, Adeleke defeated Oyetola and as a result checked him from running a second term of office and extending the years in office of the central to 19 while he, by the victory, assumed office and has now extended the years in office of the West to about six.
While it may be forseeable that the winner of the August 15 election would be a candidate among the three top contenders who are from the same senatorial district, it appears not yet easily predictable who among the three would actually win the contest. What perhaps may aid in determining the likely winner should include the popularity of the candidates and their parties, personal structure of the candidates and structure of their parties, personality, antecedent, marketability and acceptability of the candidates.
Adeleke
Adeleke came into the political scene in Osun State when he won a by-election conducted into the seat of Osun West after his elder brother who occupied the seat died. The elder brother who was the first civilian governor of the state was said to be preparing to stage a come-back into the governorship seat when he died suddenly.
The younger Adeleke, after serving in the Senate, decided to contest the governorship seat in 2018 when the then incumbent governor, Aregbesola was leaving office. Adeleke contested on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) while Aregbesola’s party presented Oyetola for the race. Adeleke narrowly lost in that election but went to prepare himself for another contest that would come up four years later
In the second contest he had the same Oyetola of the APC who is now the incumbent governor as his major opponent again and he was able to defeat him this time round to emerge the governor.
To be narrowly defeated in the first attempt and win in the second attempt shows that Adeleke is a formidable politician in the state. He had inherited the political structure of his elder brother while he is also said to be enjoying a huge financial backing from another of his elder brothers, Deji Adeleke, an influential business mogul who however refrained himself from active politics.
Adeleke is running out his first tenure and now contesting again for a second term of office. He contested and won his first term on the platform of the PDP, a former ruling party in the country and later the major opposition party but whose clout and influence as an opposition party has waned drastically. He would be contesting the next election on the platform of the Accord party, a party which does not enjoy national popularity but only at time commanded some structure in Oyo state when a former Governor of the state, Rashidi Ladoja identified with.
He left PDP when it appeared that the party which has been beset with internal wranglings could not find its bearing. He however reportedly attempted to join APC, the ruling party at the national level, but later changed his mind when opposition from the APC in the state was mounting against his joining the party.
He settled for the Accord when he could no longer join the APC. However before he joined the Accord some other bigwigs in the PDP had left him in the party to the APC. These bigwigs include serving Senators and and members of the House of Representatives. This appears to make APC stronger in the state. However it is not clear to what extent these defected lawmakers would work for the APC and against Adeleke since it seems that their defection was not totally without the consent of the governor who himself had attempted to join the APC.
The Accord may not be a strong party but Adeleke appeared to have brought into the party a popularity that has made the party a force to reckon with in the politics of the state. It is also said that some of the aggrieved politicians in the APC are also working clandestinely with him to make the Accord triuphm at the poll
However, there are divergent views about popularity of Adeleke in the state. Some are of the view that he is no longer as popular as when he contested and won his present term of office. Those holding this view are mostly of the oppositions who are faulting his administration in the deliverance of dividends of democracy.
They are saying that he was not making a serious impact on the infrastructural development of the state and that the few noticeable impacts are mostly concentrated on his native constituency of Ede community. They said this is also the situation in term of employment. They are saying the little employment made are mostly in favour of people from Ede
However some other people in the state are of the view that the governor has shown that he is committed to development of the entire state and not a section of it. They said that he has executed numerous road projects and some other projects across the state. They pointed to road projects in Ilesha and Ile-Ife in Osun East, Iwo and Ede in Osun West and continuation of Osogbo-kwara State boundary dual carriage road project in Osun central among others
They said that Adeleke’s administration is burdened with a huge debt inherited from a previous administration which forced Adeleke’s administration to be servicing debt with resources that would have been expended on infrastructural development and employment.
In spite of the fact that Adeleke was not able to join the APC he is still not seem to be opposed to President Bola Tinubu as he did previously when the president contested the 2023 presidential election. He, and his Accord party has declared support for the president in the next year presidential eletion. With this as the situation, there is the opinion among some people that the president may not work against him. Some are saying that the president would likely chose to maintain neutrality in the governorship election as both Adeleke of the Accord party and Oyebamiji of the APC are for him.
Ede, the Adeleke’s community is one of the areas with strongest voting strength in the state and the Adelekes seems to always enjoy support of the community at any political period. There is the hope that this next election would not be an exception. His deputy who is still his running mate in this election is from Ile-Ife, another community considered as one of the areas with strongest voting strength.
There is likelihood that each of the three candidates will in the election lead in his axis within the West district but Adeleke who is said to have executed projects of infrastructural development in parts of the other axis aside his own axis may also do well in the poll in the other axes.
In Ife territory, apart from picking his running mate from the area, Adeleke may also enjoy support of loyalists of some of the aggrieved politicians in the APC who are from the territory. In Ijesha territory though he appears to have a big challenge because of the prescence, in the area, of some political heavy weights in the state who are in the opposition parties, it is not yet sure that some of these heavy weights would not eventually facilitate good performance at the poll in the area for him.
His greatest challenge will perhaps, come from the central district where there are politicians of opposition parties who vehemently oppose to his reelection. Most of them are in the APC and they include two former governors of the state, Chief Bisi Akande in Ila-Orangun axis and Oyetola in Boripe axis and the National Secretary of the APC, a former Senator from Osogbo axis, Ajibola Basiru. Oyetola who is now the nation’s Minister of Blue Economy seems to still loathe his losing of the governorship election to Adeleke in 2022 and determine to see the defeat of the governor in the next election. The APC scribe who initially showed interest in the governorship race before withdrawing his ambition is
viewed as likely to revive the interest in the near future and to secure the ambition he would need his party being the ruling one in the state.
However, there are still some biwigs in the district who are being seen as likely to work for Adeleke. They include Oyinlola, the former governor of the state and Lasun Yusuf, a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives . Though Oyinlola remains in PDP he also appear to remain an associate of the incumbent governor. If he and Yusuf and some other frontline politicians in the area eventually support Adeleke, they may weaken opposition from the district to the governor’s reelection.
The residency of the APC chieftains in the area may also not totally mean victory of the party is guaranteed in the area. In 2022 Adeleke with the PDP defeated Oyetola in Ila LGA, the constituency of Akande, with about 2000 votes.
One factor that may work in favour of Adeleke above the two other top candidates is that the governor is seeking his second term which likely means that after the next four years, the slot will be considered for other senatorial districts. This is unlike in the case of the two other candidates who are seeking to be governor for the first time. Many people in the other districts may want to prefer to vote for a candidate that has just only a term more to go than a candidate who may still seek second term which means Osun West would likely occupy the governorship seat for the next eight years while other districts keep waiting.
Oyebamiji
Oyebamiji who hails from Ikire in the Osun West has involved in governance in the state previously. He was a commissioner for finance under both Aregbesola and Oyetola’s administrations. He was one of the governorship aspirants within APC seeking to contest for the ticket of the party in 2018 before he backed out.
He was also until recently the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority. He was appointed to the post by President Tinubu in 2023 and stepped down in late 2025 to prosecute his governorship ambition.
While the former commissioner may no longer be in the same camp with Aregbesola he is still with Oyetola who many believe was a key player in how he emerged the governorship candidate of the APC.
Oyebamiji is expected to pull weight in his Osun West district but his ability to tower above Adeleke in the zone is still a doubt to many people who see the Adelekes as being steongly established in the area.
He also chose his running mate from Ife territory but one major obstacle for him there is the reported opposition of former Deputy Governor of the state, Senator Iyiola Omisore who lost the APC governorship ticket to him. Omisore still remains in the APC but some of his associates have reportedly pitched tent with Adeleke. With this being the situation, Oyebamiji’s lead in Ife territory may be difficult.
In the Ijesha axis of the Osun East, his APC party appears to enjoy a strong structure as both the senator representing the district who is from Ijeshaland and some House of Representatives members including the veteran Wole Oke are in the APC. However, there appear to be a threatening limit to the extent APC can win votes here. This is because Aregbesola who is at the present is a chieftain of the ADC is said to have his structure still firmly entrenched in the axis.
Perhaps, Osun Central may be most favourable to the APC candidate because of influence of the chieftains of the party in the zone. Chieftains like Oyetola and Basiru appear to be very resolute in their determination to have Adeleke unseated and they seem not to be leaving any stone unturned in deploring every arsenal within their capacity to fight the battle.
However, Adeleke is said to enjoy popularity in Osogbo, the state capital which control a sizeable number of voters in the central district. Nevertheless, it may be very tasky for him to excel in the Osogbo axis as Basiru who have the area as his primary constituency would not want to lose it to him. In the Odo-Otin axis of the central district, the APC candidate may not have an easy ride as Oyinlola, a PDP chieftain from the axis who still controls some influence in the ara is said to maintain a close working relationship with Adeleke.
Oyebamiji’s APC , being a former ruling party in the state still maintains a wide and strong structure in the state but not as much as when Aregbesola was in the party. The APC is the ruling party at the federal level where Tinubu who is said to have a particular affinity with the state is the president. It is being suspected in some quarters that there might be an exertion of federal influence in some form in favour of the APC in the state governorship election Though federal agencies including the police force that would be involved in the election process are assuring neutrality, the recent development in which the Secretary to the State Government, Teslim Igbalaye was alongside five other chieftains of the Accord party, though later released, were arrested by the police in the state over alleged being in possession of Permanent Voter Cards (PCVs) and a voter register seem to be making Adeleke and his party to doubt neutrality of the police.
Salam
The ADC governorship candidate was the Speaker of the state House of Assembly when Aregbesola was the governor. He was in the APC but left the party alongside Aregbesola for the ADC.
The ADC which previously was not a party well known in Osun suddenly became one of the leading parties in the state when Aregbesola moved his structure into the party. The former governor is the National Secretary of the party and the party is one of the major parties contesting the next year presidential election with the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, being its presidential candidate.
Aregbesola is a grassroot politician who impressively mobilises support for any party he may belong to. He left the APC after what appears to be irreconsiliable differences between him and some other leading figures within the party both at the state and national level. It is being said that the differences started since Oyetola emerged his successor as the governor of the state and that the crisis made him not to be favourably disposed to re-election of Oyetola for second term of office. He was still in APC when Oyetola lost his second term bid and only left the party later to join the ADC.
Aregbesola is said to have facilitated emergence of Salam as the ADC gubernatorial candidate and the latter seems to be heavily relying on the former governor’s political influence to run for the governorship race while also using his own political clout and experience to sell his candidature to the electorate.
Salam who hails from Ejigbo may
enjoy a profound support in his axis in the Osun West but may not be too impressive in his overall result in the senatorial district as he does not appear to be more popular than either of the other two top candidates from the district.
In the East district the influence of Aregbesola is likely to work for him but this may be restricted to the Ijesha axis and not included the Ife axis where Adeleke apeear to be enjoying enormous support and Oyebamiji is also making inroad.
In the central, Aregbesola’s influence may also work for him here but there is huge influence of bigwigs in both the Accord and APC to contend with in the district which may make it difficult for the ADC’s candidate to win such a vote that could give him victory in the area.
There is, in some quarters, the opinion that the ADC may subtly aid Adeleke in the poll to ensure his victory. Those who are of this opinion are saying that there are certain key figures in the ADC who while in APC four years ago aided Adeleke of the PDP to victory and that these leaders may renew relationship with Adeleke to support him to win this election if it appears to them that the poll is not going to be in favour of the ADC.
However, there is also the view held by some observers that ADC is not likely to work with Adeleke because the Accord candidate and his party had expressed their decision to support Tinubu in the presidential election and that that means an opposition to the ADC and its presidential candidate in the election. The observers also feel that Adeleke after victory may go back to the PDP and identified with the faction of the party that seems to be working for Tinubu or join the APC directly with the effect that the APC would be further strengthened against the ADC in the state in the future.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the total registered voters in the state are 2, 339, 233 while the wards are 332 and polling units, 3, 763. Chairman of the electoral body, Joash Amupitan, while addressing stakeholders in the state recently further disclosed that 4,427 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System devices have been customised and deployed for the election. He said the devices included 664 dedicated backup units representing a 15 per cent operational reserve, stationed at RAC levels with specialised RACTECH officers to resolve hardware glitches instantly.
While further elucidating on the arrangements the commission had made to make the election smoothly conducted Amupitan stated: “Through the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS), double registrations and invalid entries were systematically purged. This clean, legally verified electorate of 2, 339, 233 citizens holds the exclusive, authority to choose the leadership of Osun State.
“To eliminate early-morning deployment bottlenecks, we have decentralised our distribution network into 97 Super Registration Area Centres (Super RACs) and 105 Registration Area Centre (RACs ) across the state”
It is hoped that there will be no hitches caused by the INEC, security agencies, parties and their supporters to cast disreputation on freeness, fairness, credibility and integrity of the election.
