By Dele Moses
With a victory at the 2015 governorship poll, Senator Ishaq Abiola Ajimobi, the then incumbent governor of Oyo State became the first governor of the state to win a second term of office. He had won his first term in 2011 before wining again in 2015 to run the second term.
Before him, there was no governor of the state that had won his second term of office as those who made attempt failed while the other did not even had opportunity to make the attempt owing to the sudden truncating of their first term in office by military coup that took over government of the country
This victory made him and his second term of the office to be styled koseleri i.e unprecedented. He won both his first and second term elections facing tough opposition with the first one being against an incumbent governor and the second against a formidable political structure in the state.
In 1983, the first civilian Governor of the state, Chief Bola Ige of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) who had won his first term election in 1979 made efforts to win a second term but did not succeed as he lost to his opponent, Dr Omololu Olunloyo of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN).
The December 31 military coup of the 1983 did not however allow Olunloyo stay in office for more than three months and he thus did not have the opportunity of completing his first term let alone contesting the second term of office.
Chief Kolapo Ishola suffered the same fate at the aborted third republic as he did not stay more than 22 months in office before the military took over from the interim national government of Chief Ernest Shonekan. He was in office . between January 1992 and November 1993 and could not serve out his first term which could have ended in January 1996 after which he might have attempted the second term.
In 2003, the incumbent Alhaji Lam Adesina of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) contested for second term but lost the election to Senator Rashidi Ladoja of the PDP. Adeshina had won his first term in 1999 when the country returned to Democracy after the military interregnum. He won just as all the AD governorship candidates won in all the six South West zone of the country as the party was very popular at the time. However in virtually all the state except Lagos, the party lost to the PDP
in 2003.
In Oyo, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu who was in All People’s Party (APP) in 1999 had, before the 2003 election, crossed to the PDP where he aided Ladoja to victory. This victory made Adeshina unable to realise his ambition of running a second term of office as the governor.
While Lajoja was still running his first term of office an unresolved disagreement broke out between him and Adedibu, the kingmaker, which, with the aid of the then incumbent president of the country, Olusegun Obasanjo, culminated in removal of Ladoja from office after being impeached by the state House of Assembly in 2026.
Ladoja was replaced by his deputy, Adebayo Alao-Akala who later reverted to his position as deputy governor when Lajoda regained his mandate as governor through the court which nullified his removal from office. However, before Ladoja could be reinstated, his party, the PDP, had conducted its governorship primary election and Alao-Akala who was then the governor had won the ticket to contest the 2007 election on the platform of the party.
Alao-Akala won this ticket through the support of Adedibu, the kingmaker, who insisted that Ladoja though has been reinstated as governor will not be re-elected for a second term of office. Adedibu supported his stance by asserting that in Oyo State, a governor does not serve second term of office.
Ladoja ended up not contesting in 2007 election as he was not a candidate of his party or any other party. It was Alao-Akala that had won the PDP’s ticket as the governor before reverting to his post of deputy governor that contested on the platform of the party.
Alao-Akala won the election and four years later he still emerged the candidate of the PDP to contest for his second term of office. However before he would do this in 2011, Adedibu, his his godfather and strongman of Ibadan politics, had died in 2008 and he had to go into the election relying majorly on his own strenght as the incumbent governor.
He lost the election to Ajimobi who contested on the platform of the ACN, the party that was taking over the South West after the AD had been incapacitated. The loss of Alao-Akala in the election stopped him from wining a second term of office just like the previous incumbent governors who had contested for the second term.
Ajimobi governed the state for four years of his first term before recontesting to seek second term. Shortly before his seeking the second term, his party, the ACN had alongside some other parties in the country transformed into the All Progressives Congress (APC) and it was on this new mega party that he contested for the second term in 2015.
He contested the 2015 election with the former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin of the PDP as his major opponent in the election. He won and became the first serving governor to win a second term of office in the state. His victory was epochal as it put an end to the narrative that a governor does not serve a second term in the state..
However, after finishing his second term of office, Ajimobi did not succeed in ensuring that his choice candidate in his party succeeded him in office as the candidate of his APC, Adebayo Adelabu, lost the election to Seyi Makinde, the candidate of the main opposition party in the election, the PDP.
Makinde went on to equal record of Ajimobi by also wining a second term of office which he is currently running and which he would be through with by May 2027. Before this date however, another election is expected to take place in February 2027 where successor of Makinde as the next governor of the state will emerge.
The incumbent Oyo governor, having achieved the feat of his predecessor by also serving two terms in the state now seems to set for another unprecedented record. He has endorsed a candidate which he wanted as his successor. This would have first been recorded in 2019 had candidate of Ajimobi in APC won the governorship election but since he lost the election, it was not recorded.
The choice candidate of Makinde for the election is Bimbo Adekanmbi who emerged the candidate of the Allied Party Movement (APM) through a consensus arrangement. Makinde was in a faction of the PDP but has adopted the APM for his next political pursuits, including that of his own presidential ambition.
He has largely moved his structure to APM and he wanted the party to emerge the next ruling party in the state with Adekanmbi as the governor while he would also be contesting the presidential election on the platform of the party.
Adekanmbi was a former aide of Ajimobi under whose administration as the state governor he served as a deputy chief of staff. He however later got associated with Makinde and served in the latter’s first governorship tenure as a commissioner for finance. His attempt to win a senatorial election in 2023 proved abortive as he lost to Sharafadeen Alli of the APC.
Emergence of Adeknmbi’s as Makinde endorsed candidate has raised insinuations that the incumbent governor was interested in playing a godfather to his successor in office. This is more so that he appeared to have made a powerful influence on emergence of the candidate at the expense of some other aspirants that are being seen as politically stronger than the candidate.
Makinde has however debunked the insinuations as he said that his decisions were guided by interest of the people of the state. He said that he considered professional competence, capacity, temperament, and physical energy required to discharge the responsibilities of governing a State before endorsing Adekanmbi.
He said, Adekanmbi, a chartered accountant, had demonstrated the qualities required to lead the state particularly through professional accomplishments and recognition within his field.
“I think Bimbo will do well for the state. He has the intellect, he has the capacity and he has been well recognised within his chosen profession as a fellow.” He stated.
Makinde who said his own experience of combining governance with frequent project inspection had convinced him that youthful energy was an important consideration in choosing his successor insisted that he was not interested in emerging a godfather to the next governor. “Let me also say that I am not interested in being a godfather to anybody,” he said.
Regardless of his claim that he was not interested in being a godfather to a successor of his in office, Makinde has succeeded in having his endorsed aspirant emerged the candidate of his adopted party and he apears to be making frantic moves in ensuring that the candidate win the election,
The candidate, Adekanmbi, may have some political strenght as a politician in the state but he is being largely seen as a candidate that will piggyback on the strenght of Makinde for the governorship election. Makinde is popular in the state with infrastructural development projects and welfare of workers and pensioners. He has a formidable structure and he could prove difficult for an opposition to beat in the state.
However, in the pursuit of his agenda of installing a successor, it seems he would be confronting numerous challenges that may snarl up realisation of the ambition. The challenges include those that were connected with intra-party crisis and those of the external origin.
The endorsement of Adekanmbi by Makinde as the APM’s governorship candidate did not go down well with some other aspirants who were aggrieved that Adekanmbi was allegedly imposed on the party. The grievances have led a strong poltician in the party, Taofeek Arapaja, to pitch his tent with the APC while his supporters across the state have been following suit
There is the view in some quarters that Arapaja, a former deputy governor in the state and a former deputy national chairman of the PDP, had by his decision lightened the weight of APM to some extent in the state while bulking up that of the APC.
However, it not yet clear what disposition of another strong politician in the state, the immediate past Minister of Power, Adelabu, will be on the 2027 governorship election. Adelabu did not succeed in his quest to be the candidate of the APC in the election as he lost the ticket to Alli but since the loss he is said not to have wholeheartedly fraternised with the party or the candidate raising speculation that he may work with the Makinde’s APM at the poll. Should this happen, the void created by Arapaja”s departure may be filled by Adelabu’s support for the party at the poll.
The APC which is the strongest of the opposition parties in the state is working assiduously to reclaim the governorship seat it lost to Makinde’s camp in 2019 and put an end to the reign of the camp in the politics of the state. Apart from winning support of Arapaja, the party has also encouraged some of its top chieftains including Folarin to remain with it.
The APC which is the ruling party at the national level is also likely to capitalise on this status to strengthen itself at the poll. This is more so that Makinde, unlike 2023 when he tacitly supported the APC presidential candidate, is now working against the party in the upcoming presidential election as he is also the presidential candidate of his own party.
The APC is also being allegedly supported by the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, in the governorship election. Ladoja who is a former governor of the state was said to have facilitated emergence of Alli as the APC governorship candidate. Alli had served as Secretary to the State Government under the administration of Ladoja as governor and he is said to remain a loyalist of the former governor turned traditional ruler.
Ladoja since ascending to the throne as the Olubadan has declared that by virtue of his office as a traditional ruler he was no longer a partisan of any party but a father to all politicians in the state. However it is being alleged in some quarters that he had not divested himself of partisan politics and that he costituted a strong force pushing for the election of Alli as the next governor of the state.
The governorship election will be conducted February 6 next year and between now and the time, parties and candidates would be involved in electioneering activities to hoover up, at the poll, votes from the electorate who will decide their choice as the next governor of the state and whatever their decision is, it would imply either they are making the state witness another unprecedented record of allowing an outgoing 2-term governor of having his endorsed candidate installed as his successor or disallowing that.
